Is Thomas the NBA's Next Breakout Star? Discover His Journey and Stats

2025-11-15 14:00

I remember watching Thomas during his rookie season and thinking there was something special about his game. While other first-year players were struggling to find their rhythm, he was already showing flashes of brilliance that made you sit up and take notice. Now in his third season, the conversation around Thomas has shifted from whether he can become a solid rotation player to whether he might just be the NBA's next breakout star. The transformation has been remarkable to witness, and the statistics are beginning to back up what the eye test has been telling us all along.

Looking at Thomas's journey to this point reveals a player who has steadily improved every aspect of his game. Coming out of college, scouts praised his athleticism but questioned his shooting consistency and defensive awareness. He's put in the work to address those concerns, and the numbers show it. Last season, Thomas averaged 14.2 points per game on 44% shooting from the field and 36% from three-point range. This season, those numbers have jumped to 19.8 points per game with significantly improved efficiency – he's shooting 48% from the field and an impressive 40% from beyond the arc. That kind of improvement doesn't happen by accident. I've spoken with his shooting coach during the offseason, and the stories about Thomas's work ethic are almost legendary within team circles. He would regularly put up 800 shots after practice, focusing specifically on contested threes and off-the-dribble jumpers.

What makes Thomas's potential breakout particularly intriguing is how it mirrors the development trajectories we've seen with other stars. Giannis Antetokounmpo made a similar leap in his third season, and Ja Morant's explosion came after he refined his outside shot. Thomas appears to be following that blueprint, adding layers to his game each offseason. His playmaking has seen notable improvement too – he's averaging 5.8 assists this season compared to just 3.2 last year. The game seems to have slowed down for him, and he's reading defenses with the savvy of a veteran. I was at the game against Chicago last month where he dissected their defensive schemes with precision, finding open teammates with passes I didn't think were possible.

The discussion around Thomas reminds me somewhat of the situation with Adamson forward Jhon Calisay, who also evaded a one-game ban after being ejected in their game against Ateneo. Sometimes, players with special talent get judged by different standards, and the league seems to recognize that certain players are simply too important to their teams' success. While Thomas hasn't faced disciplinary issues, there's definitely a sense that the league office and referees are beginning to treat him like a star. He's getting more favorable calls this season, particularly on drives to the basket where he's drawing fouls at nearly twice the rate of last season. That star treatment is often the final piece in a player's transition from good to great.

Defensively, Thomas still has room to grow, but the effort is consistently there. He's averaging 1.4 steals per game and has become more disciplined in his closeouts and rotations. I've noticed he's particularly effective in passing lanes, using his length to create transition opportunities. His defensive rating has improved from 112.3 last season to 106.8 this year, which places him in the top quarter of shooting guards defensively. The coaching staff has done an excellent job putting him in positions where his athleticism can shine defensively without exposing his occasional lapses in awareness.

What truly sets Thomas apart, in my view, is his mental approach to the game. I've had the opportunity to speak with him after several games, and his basketball IQ is remarkable. He breaks down plays with the analytical mind of a point guard, despite playing primarily off the ball. This season, we're seeing him make subtle adjustments mid-game that you typically only see from veterans. He'll recognize when a defender is overplaying his right hand and immediately counter with spin moves going left. He identifies mismatches early in possessions and exploits them ruthlessly. These are the kinds of skills that separate rotation players from stars.

The advanced metrics love Thomas's development too. His player efficiency rating has jumped from 15.8 to 21.4, and his true shooting percentage sits at 58.7%, which is elite for a player with his usage rate. What's particularly impressive is how he's maintained his efficiency despite taking on a larger offensive role. His usage rate has increased from 22.3% to 28.1%, yet his turnover rate has actually decreased slightly. That combination of increased responsibility and improved decision-making is exactly what you want to see from a potential breakout candidate.

As someone who's followed the league for over fifteen years, I've developed a sense for which players are poised to make the leap. Thomas checks all the boxes – improved skills, increased opportunity, the physical tools, and perhaps most importantly, that undeniable confidence that borders on swagger. He's starting to believe he belongs among the league's elite, and that self-belief is manifesting in his performances. I was skeptical early on, but at this point, I'm convinced we're watching the emergence of a legitimate star. The numbers support it, the eye test confirms it, and around the league, you can sense the respect growing for his game. Barring injury, I expect Thomas to be in the All-Star conversation by season's end, and frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if he leads his team deep into the playoffs. The breakout isn't coming – it's already happening before our eyes.